Japan is bracing for a possible Nankai Trough mega-quake with projected fatalities around 300,000 should it occur in winter. Tsunami waves and extensive evacuations could significantly impact the nation, leading to estimated economic damages around 270.3 trillion yen. Enhanced preparations, particularly for vulnerable populations, remain critical to reducing risks and casualties from such an event.
Japan is preparing for a potential mega-quake along the Nankai Trough, estimating a worst-case scenario death toll of approximately 300,000, particularly if the earthquake occurs late in winter. The severity of this anticipated disaster raises concerns regarding the displacement of up to 12.3 million individuals, which comprises roughly 10 percent of the nation’s population. Economic damages are projected to reach 270.3 trillion yen, which is double the country’s current national budget, emphasizing the gravity of this threat.
The panel has shared estimates of seismic intensity, expecting the quake to reach a maximum of 7 on the Japanese scale in ten prefectures, with areas experiencing tsunamis of over 30 meters in some regions. Reports indicate that late-night quakes could lead to the highest fatalities, predominantly due to the resultant tsunamis. Additionally, it is projected that post-disaster health-related deaths could account for up to 52,000 individuals, significantly outpacing the casualties from the earthquake itself.
In considering urban impact, the phenomenon of “long-period ground motion” could significantly affect skyscrapers, causing injuries through falling furniture and potential overcrowding in emergency exits. Thorough assessments of building safety may take over a month due to a limited number of available engineers, which complicates safe access to high-rises. Measures like securing items within buildings and implementing new structural checks are suggested to mitigate damage.
NHK World’s Senior Correspondent Shimakawa Eisuke explains the urgency of government focus on the Nankai Trough, highlighting historical precedents of mega-quakes occurring approximately every 150 years. Following the unforeseen magnitude of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, there is growing recognition that preventative measures must be developed with worst-case scenarios in mind.
While efforts have been initiated to reduce potential casualties through building evacuation towers and conducting drills, the national government has not fully achieved its targets for disaster readiness. Furthermore, the panel recognized challenges faced by foreign residents and visitors in accessing vital information and resources during such emergencies, underscoring the necessity of ensuring they too are informed about evacuation procedures.
Expert Fukuwa Nobuo has advocated for enhanced government and industrial measures to mitigate quake-related risks. He expresses concern about the lack of significant progress in reducing expected risks and stresses the importance of creating quake-proof infrastructure across the country. The focus on improving monitoring systems and disaster readiness personnel is critical to enhancing Japan’s resilience against such devastating events.
In summary, Japan’s anticipated mega-quake poses a severe risk, with estimates of high casualties and economic repercussions. The preparedness efforts have seen some progress, yet considerable challenges remain, especially in communicating with vulnerable populations such as foreign residents. Experts advocate for robust structural measures and increased public awareness to mitigate the potential impact of this devastating disaster.
Original Source: www3.nhk.or.jp
