A report from Japan warns that a potential megaquake along the Nankai Trough could lead to 298,000 deaths and $2 trillion in damages, revising earlier estimates. It details historical patterns of seismic activity and highlights increased likelihood of such events, emphasizing the need for stringent building codes and public preparedness.
Japan has released a concerning report indicating that a potential “megaquake” along the Nankai Trough could result in approximately 298,000 fatalities and up to $2 trillion in damages. This figure updates a previous estimate from 2014 regarding the catastrophic impact of an earthquake in the region, which stretches 800 kilometers from Shizuoka to the southern tip of Kyushu. The Nankai Trough is characterized by the subduction of the Philippine Sea tectonic plate beneath Japan’s continental plate, creating the conditions for severe seismic activity.
The report reveals that the primary causes of expected fatalities would include 215,000 from a tsunami, 73,000 from collapsed buildings, and 9,000 from fires. The revised death toll is lower compared to the 2014 prediction, which anticipated up to 323,000 deaths. A “megaquake” is classified as an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater and has the potential to induce extensive destruction along with triggering tsunamis.
Historically, megaquakes in the Nankai Trough have occurred every 100 to 200 years, with the last significant event recorded in 1946. A recent government analysis has indicated a raised probability of a megaquake within the next three decades, which is now assessed at 75-82%. In light of its seismic activity, Japan has instituted rigorous building codes to ensure that its infrastructure can endure powerful earthquakes.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued its first “megaquake advisory” following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake in southern Japan last year. Though the advisory was lifted after a week, it resulted in public panic and shortages of essential goods. Additionally, a recent devastating earthquake on New Year’s Day in the Noto Peninsula resulted in 260 deaths and inflicted significant structural damage during the holiday period. Japan has faced severe earthquake-related disasters in the past, with the notable 2011 earthquake and tsunami causing immense losses and marking a pivotal moment in the country’s disaster history.
The newly released report underscores the ongoing risk of megaquakes in the Nankai Trough, emphasizing both the potential human and economic toll of such disasters. Japan’s historical patterns of seismic activity and the recent government analysis heighten concerns about the likelihood of a significant earthquake occurring in the coming decades. Implementation of stringent building regulations is crucial for mitigating damage, yet public awareness and preparedness remain vital components in managing future earthquake risks.
Original Source: www.hindustantimes.com
