The IMD forecasts a hotter summer for 2025, with increased heatwave days expected across many states. The report emphasizes the warmth’s potential health impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations. While rainfall is predicted to normalize in April, the ongoing climate trends necessitate precautionary measures to mitigate heat-related risks.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the upcoming summer season, from April 1 to June 30, 2025, will experience increased temperatures and an uptick in heatwave days across several states. The forecast holds substantial importance as summer conditions significantly influence the well-being and livelihoods of the population.
This rise in temperatures is not unexpected, as previous months have consistently recorded high heat levels in various regions. Particularly, the forecast predicts that areas in northwest and east India will face exceptionally high heat conditions, with an increase in heatwave days expected to rise from the normal range of four to seven to between six and ten days.
The IMD defines a heatwave occurrence based on specific temperature criteria, which include maximum temperatures reaching or exceeding 45 degrees Celsius. The seasonal outlook suggests above-normal temperatures across most of India, with the exception of some localized regions where normal temperatures are anticipated. Notably, both maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to surpass normal levels, leading to excessively warm nights as well.
For April specifically, the IMD forecasts similar trends, with above-normal temperatures across the country, except for parts of the extreme south and northwest, where standard maximum temperatures may prevail. Additionally, heatwave days during this month are expected to increase, emphasizing the potential health risks associated with heat exposure for vulnerable populations.
The IMD has illuminated the dangers of elevated temperatures, particularly for elderly individuals and those with pre-existing health conditions, noting the heightened risk for heat-related illnesses. To mitigate these impacts, the IMD has suggested that proactive measures be taken, including establishing cooling centers and issuing heat advisories according to guidelines from disaster management authorities.
On the other hand, the forecast indicates potential relief through normal rainfall levels expected in April, which could alleviate the heat stress experienced after a notably dry March. Despite overall deficiencies in rainfall observed in March, there is anticipation for an uptick in precipitation across various regions.
The climate situation is further tempered by the transitioning status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is forecasted to remain neutral, as will the Indian Ocean Dipole, conditions that typically influence summer and monsoon patterns in India. The implications of global warming, alongside fewer occurrences of western disturbances this past March, have been noted as contributing factors to the elevated temperature trends detailed in the IMD report.
In summary, the IMD’s summer forecast signals a notable increase in temperatures and heatwave days across India, posing significant challenges for health and infrastructure. While there is a projected increase in rainfall to provide some relief, ongoing climate patterns underscore the necessity for proactive measures to address heat-related risks. Overall, the conditions highlight the complex interplay between global warming, ENSO phases, and local climate variability, necessitating a comprehensive approach to manage summer extremes.
Original Source: www.hindustantimes.com
