A Japanese government panel has revised the death toll estimate for a potential megaquake in the Nankai Trough to 298,000, indicating an 80% likelihood of a major seismic event occurring in the next 30 years. The report stresses the importance of implementing preventive measures to minimize fatalities and improve evacuation strategies, especially in light of predicted tsunami impacts.
A recent report by a Japanese government panel reveals that an anticipated megaquake in the Nankai Trough may result in a death toll of up to 298,000 individuals. This estimation marks a slight decline from the previous forecast made over a decade ago. There is currently an 80 percent likelihood of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake occurring in the next 30 years along this fault line.
The panel, led by Nagoya University Professor Emeritus Fukuwa Nobuo, submitted the report to Disaster Management Minister Sakai Manabu. Minister Sakai emphasized the importance of implementing preventative measures and expressed commitment to fostering initiatives that could mitigate the quake’s impact.
The report anticipates a maximum seismic magnitude of 9, with an expected seismic intensity of at least lower 6 across 24 prefectures, and a maximum of 7 in 10 other prefectures. Furthermore, it predicts tsunami that could exceed 10 meters in height traveling towards Tokyo and other regions, with extreme cases over 30 meters affecting Kochi and Shizuoka.
In a worst-case scenario, particularly if the quake occurs late at night during winter, fatalities could reach 298,000. Most of these deaths would likely result from subsequent tsunami waves. This estimation is just 8 percent lower than the earlier figure of 320,000, despite improvements in evacuation efforts such as constructing seawalls and establishing evacuation towers.
Moreover, the panel estimates around 52,000 people may face disaster-related deaths, indicating a dramatic increase when compared to the 2011 events in northeastern Japan. This underlines the urgent requirement to enhance shelter conditions for evacuees. Fukuwa remarked on the pressing need to reduce potential damage and expressed hope for thorough execution of safety measures.
The revised estimates from the Japanese government panel provide critical insights into the potential impacts of a future megaquake in the Nankai Trough. With a possibility of up to 298,000 fatalities, the report underscores the importance of proactive measures to mitigate loss of life. The expected tsunami and casualties highlight the necessity of improving evacuation plans and offshore defenses to safeguard the population. With proper implementation of safety protocols, the anticipated risks can be effectively managed.
Original Source: www3.nhk.or.jp
