The Japanese government foresees that a potential Nankai Trough earthquake could result in 298,000 fatalities, primarily from tsunami and building collapses. Economic damages are expected to reach 292.2 trillion yen. Despite improvements in building standards and evacuation plans, the scope of flooding is anticipated to increase.
According to a recent report by the Japanese government, a potential Nankai Trough earthquake, estimated at magnitude 9, could result in the tragic loss of up to 298,000 lives in Japan primarily due to a tsunami and collapsing structures. This figure shows a decrease from the previous estimate of approximately 323,000 deaths made in 2012-2013, attributable to improvements in building resilience and the establishment of tsunami evacuation facilities.
The revised projections from the experts’ panel indicate that while the anticipated death toll has decreased, the area vulnerable to flooding is expected to expand based on updated terrain and ground data. Moreover, the economic repercussions of such an earthquake are projected to amount to approximately 292.2 trillion yen, marking an increase from the earlier estimated damage of 237.2 trillion yen, driven by rising prices.
Should the earthquake occur, it is anticipated that a tremor with a seismic intensity of 7—the maximum on Japan’s scale—would be recorded across 149 municipalities dispersed over 10 prefectures, further emphasizing the potential for widespread destruction and loss.
In conclusion, the Japanese government’s report highlights the devastating potential of a Nankai Trough earthquake, predicting significant loss of life and extensive economic damage. Improved building standards and evacuation procedures have lowered the expected death toll, yet the risk of expanded flooding remains high. Thus, the urgency for preparedness measures cannot be overstated.
Original Source: www.nippon.com
