The fall of Bashar Assad is reshaping geopolitical dynamics between Turkey and Russia, favoring Turkey’s leadership under Erdogan while diminishing Russia’s international standing. As both countries navigate their mutual interests amidst ongoing conflicts in Syria and Ukraine, there remains potential for collaboration despite underlying tensions.
The recent fall of Syrian leader Bashar Assad has instigated a new era of geopolitical intricacies between Turkey and Russia. With Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, appearing to gain the upper hand, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin faces diminished international influence. Political analysts emphasize that this development signals Turkey’s strategic victory in their ongoing rivalry, which has historically oscillated between competition and collaboration.
The dissolution of Assad’s regime has far-reaching implications for the dynamics between Putin and Erdogan, not only concerning Syria but also impacting their interactions with Ukraine and the United States. Despite their opposition during the Syrian civil war, both nations share economic and security interests, but frequently find themselves in rivalry, as demonstrated by their past conflicts and uneasy alliances.
The historical tensions reached a peak in 2015 when Turkey downed a Russian jet, leading to severe economic repercussions for Turkey. However, following Erdogan’s apology and Putin’s subsequent support during a military coup in Turkey, both leaders recalibrated their relations, negotiating ceasefire deals concerning Syria while simultaneously vying for influence in Libya and Central Asia.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 made Turkey an essential partner for Russia, acting as a conduit for trade and investments, especially as the West instituted harsh sanctions on Moscow. Turkey’s balanced stance—supporting Ukraine while fostering ties with Russia—allowed it to strengthen its negotiating position with both parties.
As Russian military focus has shifted towards Ukraine, its capacity to exert influence in Syria has waned. Concurrently, Turkey took advantage of the situation, with opposition forces capitalizing on the collapse of Assad’s regime. Despite offers from Russia to mediate relations between Turkey and the newly emergent Syrian leaders, Turkey’s position remains firm, navigating its interests in a complicated landscape.
The potential future of Russian influence in Syria appears tenuous; however, some analysts believe Moscow may still maintain a degree of presence. Turkey’s long-term strategy could hinge on its relationship with the United States, especially concerning Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. Should U.S.-Turkey relations improve, Erdogan may become even more assertive against Russia.
Despite Assad’s fall threatening Russia’s influence, experts assert that the mutual economic ties between Turkey and Russia suggest the continuation of their relationship. Both nations are likely to pursue avenues for collaboration, especially on energy and trade issues, highlighting the complexity of their interactions in the aftermath of Assad’s downfall.
In summary, the downfall of Bashar Assad presents significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape for Turkey and Russia. With Turkey securing an advantageous position, analysts note that the ensuing dynamics will be largely driven by their complicated relationship and external influences, particularly from the United States. Although the fall of Assad presents challenges for Russia’s influence, the existing economic interdependence between Turkey and Russia suggests a continued, albeit cautious, alliance as they navigate these evolving circumstances.
Original Source: apnews.com
