Japan is anticipating a possible ‘megaquake’ along the Nankai Trough, with estimates of 298,000 fatalities and damages up to $2 trillion. Following a recent magnitude 7.1 earthquake, the government outlines potential evacuation plans for 1.23 million individuals. The Nankai Trough presents a 70-80% likelihood of experiencing a major quake within the next 30 years, with historical data supporting this concerning trend.
Japan is bracing for a possible catastrophic scenario that could result in as many as 298,000 fatalities and damages totaling up to $2 trillion. This alarming estimate arises following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake that occurred in southern Japan, injuring 14 individuals in early 2024. In anticipation of the potential disaster, the government estimates that there could be 1.23 million evacuees, representing 10 percent of the nation’s population.
An advisory regarding a potential “megaquake” along the Nankai Trough, an extensive undersea fault extending 900 kilometers from Shizuoka to Kyushu, was issued in August 2024. The creation of this advisory follows the devastating 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent Fukushima nuclear disaster. Given the significant tectonic activity at the Nankai Trough, the government has drawn up comprehensive measures for potential seismic events.
The region’s seismic hazards are underscored by the Philippine Sea Plate subducting beneath the Eurasian Plate, creating conditions that could lead to earthquakes of up to magnitude 9.1. Government data indicates a 70-80% probability of a magnitude 8–9 earthquake within the next three decades. Historically, megaquakes recur in this region approximately every 100 to 200 years, with the most recent major quake occurring in 1946.
In the event of a significant rupture, tsunamis could reach heights of 30-34 meters within minutes, posing a severe danger to coastal areas such as Shizuoka, Kochi, and Wakayama. Tokyo’s recent projections indicate that 215,000 deaths could result from tsunamis, with an additional 73,000 fatalities caused by collapsing buildings and 9,000 from fires.
The Nankai Trough’s tectonic strain, developed over centuries, raises concerns due to the possibility of sequential megaquakes. Research conducted by Tohoku and Kyoto Universities highlights that a magnitude 7+ quake could increase the chances of subsequent tremors by 100 to 3,600 times within a week. The trench, stretching from Shizuoka to the southern tip of Kyushu Island, has considerable implications for public safety.
Japan’s recent experiences with the 2011 Tōhoku quake, a disaster that claimed the lives of around 18,000 and caused nuclear crises, sharpen the sense of urgency in preparing for potential threats. A record magnitude 9 quake in 2011 triggered a tsunami and subsequent calamities including triple reactor meltdowns at a nuclear power facility, resulting in over 15,000 deaths. Despite the advancements in early-warning systems, the scale of a potential disaster along the Nankai Trough could exceed all prior incidents. As University of Tokyo seismologist Naoshi Hirata cautions, “The time for preparedness is now—not when the ground begins to shake.”
Japan faces a substantial threat from potential megaquakes along the Nankai Trough, with projections estimating up to 298,000 deaths and $2 trillion in damages. The government has issued advisories and projections to prepare for a potential disaster, acknowledging the significant risks posed by tectonic activities in the region. Historical precedents and ongoing research underscore the urgent need for preparedness and mitigation strategies as the nation confronts the specter of devastating seismic events.
Original Source: www.livemint.com
