Recent projections estimate that nearly 300,000 people could perish in a megaquake in Japan’s Nankai Trough. Despite a slight decrease from previous estimates, the government has not met its 2014 disaster mitigation goals. Experts emphasize the need for improved building safety and public awareness in evacuation efforts.
The Japanese government has recently updated its death toll and damage projections for a potential megaquake in the Nankai Trough, forecasting nearly 300,000 fatalities if such an event occurs. Specifically, the worst-case scenario estimates 298,000 deaths and destruction of approximately 2.35 million buildings, including homes. This represents a modest decrease compared to previous estimates, which were published more than a decade ago, with only an 8 percent reduction in the projected death toll and a 2 percent decrease in building damage.
Despite these revisions, the latest estimates are significantly below the government’s disaster mitigation objectives established in 2014. The goals aimed to achieve an 80 percent reduction in fatalities and a 50 percent decrease in the destruction of buildings within a decade. Unfortunately, these goals remain unfulfilled, particularly as many structures in high-risk areas have not been upgraded to be quake-resistant.
Fukuwa Nobuo, a Professor Emeritus at Nagoya University and a prominent member of the working group responsible for the projections, emphasizes the urgent need to enhance seismic safety measures in buildings. Meanwhile, some experts have raised concerns regarding the methodology employed for these new projections. They argue that the current assessment does not adequately account for recent changes in residents’ awareness and evacuation preparedness since no comprehensive surveys have been conducted in the last decade.
Professor Sekiya Naoya from the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School, also part of the working group, notes the critical importance of incorporating public awareness shifts related to evacuation. He highlights that evacuation drills have increased in frequency in at-risk areas compared to the period before the devastating 2011 disaster. The government has pledged to support local communities’ initiatives by regularly evaluating advancements in disaster preparedness.
The updated projections for a potential megaquake in Japan indicate a continuing high risk of fatalities and extensive property damage. Despite a slight reduction in death toll estimates, the government has fallen short of its previous disaster mitigation goals. Experts urge the necessity for enhanced building safety and updated public awareness efforts to ensure better preparedness for future seismic events. The Japanese government intends to keep supporting these local initiatives through continual assessment of disaster preparedness measures.
Original Source: www3.nhk.or.jp
