The end of a 40-year Kurdish insurgency signifies a pivotal moment for Turkey, shaped by the ramifications of the Gaza war and changing Middle Eastern dynamics. Abdullah Öcalan’s recent call for disarmament may lead to the disbandment of the PKK without military intervention. Historical patterns of Kurdish resistance, regional geopolitical shifts, and Turkey’s response to a potentially resurgent Kurdish influence underscore the significance of this transition.
The conclusion of a four-decade Kurdish insurgency marks a crucial historical turning point for Turkey, Syria, and the broader Middle East. The ramifications of this change can be traced back to the Gaza war that began in October 2023. The political dynamics suggest that the end of the al-Assad regime may enable Kurdish factions to be potentially leveraged by Israel against Turkey, prompting renewed attention towards Abdullah Öcalan, the leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
Significantly, the PKK’s anticipated disbandment is expected to conclude the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey through voluntary action rather than military defeat, which is unprecedented in the country’s century-long history. Öcalan, serving a life sentence since 1999 on İmralı Island, recently issued a “Call for Peace and Democratic Society”. This appeal, made on 27 February 2025, encourages the PKK to convene a congress and surrender arms in a notable shift in strategy.
Historically, the PKK insurgency has threatened Turkey’s territorial integrity, as noted by former Turkish leader Süleyman Demirel, who recognized its longstanding nature among Kurdish resistance movements. The issues surrounding Kurdish identity have remained central since the birth of the Turkish Republic in 1923, leading to numerous uprisings that were met with brutal repression. Founded by Öcalan, the PKK began its armed struggle in 1984, rapidly escalating into a prominent force for Kurdish rights.
Öcalan’s time in imprisonment has transformed his ideological stance, enabling him to exert significant influence over Kurdish populations in Syria. Following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, Kurdish groups gained substantial control, managing vast territories and oil resources with U.S. backing. The recent geopolitical shifts post-October 7, 2023, including diminishing Iranian influence and changing U.S. policies, further reshape the Middle Eastern political landscape, creating a precarious situation for Turkish authorities wary of a strengthened Kurdish presence.
Historically, the ties between Israel and the Kurds date back to the 1960s, when Kurdish movements in Iraq established connections with Israel. As Israel potentially seeks to support Kurdish groups in Syria and beyond, this poses strategic threats for Turkey, which has a large Kurdish population. Developments after the Gaza conflict have precipitated significant changes in the region, including the rise of a strong Kurdish entity in northern Iraq since the Gulf War and further potential developments in Syria. This evolving context compels Turkey to reassess its positioning and take decisive action regarding the Kurdish issue in light of the precarious balance of power in the region.
In conclusion, the anticipated disbandment of the PKK and the cessation of a decades-long insurgency may signify a historic shift in the dynamics between Turkey and Kurdish populations. As the political landscape morphs in the wake of the Gaza conflict and changing alliances, Turkey must navigate complex challenges posed by Kurdish aspirations for autonomy and potential support from regional powers, particularly Israel. The necessity for strategic reassessment and the proactive involvement of Turkish authorities will be imperative as this situation unfolds.
Original Source: www.realinstitutoelcano.org
