A recent government report lowered the Nankai Trough megaquake death toll estimate to 298,000 while increasing the tsunami affected area by 30%. It forecasted indirect deaths, extensive evacuations, and significant economic damages totaling ¥292 trillion, highlighting the need for improved disaster preparedness ahead of a government plan revision.
In a recent report from the Central Disaster Management Council, the projected death toll from a potential megaquake in the Nankai Trough was revised down to approximately 298,000 from an earlier estimate of up to 323,000. However, authorities increased the estimated area likely to be affected by tsunami flooding by 30%. This new measurement reflects improvements in data regarding earthquake-proofing measures and evacuation systems since the council’s initial assessment following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.
The report details that along with the primary fatality estimates, an additional indirect death toll ranging from 26,000 to 52,000 is expected due to related disasters, with an anticipated economic impact of ¥292 trillion, a marked increase from the previous estimate of ¥237 trillion. This figure includes ¥225 trillion for asset damage and ¥67 trillion for disruptions to economic activities.
The Nankai Trough is predicted to face a significant earthquake potentially reaching magnitudes of 8 or 9 within the next three decades, with the likelihood raised from 70% to approximately 80%. Historical quakes along the trough include significant events in 1944 and 1946, emphasizing the region’s seismic risk. The report notes that if such an event were to occur, it could result in considerable casualties, particularly in densely populated areas.
Essentially, up to 12.3 million individuals may need to evacuate, while approximately 950,000 could sustain injuries, and 2.35 million homes are expected to be destroyed. Furthermore, a potential coseismic slip could lead to an additional estimated toll of 176,000 deaths. The report highlights concerns regarding the aging and decreasing population, which could exacerbate the disaster’s severity. Hence, comprehensive disaster prevention efforts are deemed necessary.
The government intends to reassess its 2014 Basic Plan concerning disaster mitigation targets and implement appropriate revisions by this summer. This proactive approach aims to enhance Japan’s preparedness for potential disasters in light of the newly refined estimates.
The revised report on the Nankai Trough megaquake presents a lowered estimated death toll while simultaneously increasing the expected tsunami-affected area. With dire economic implications and extensive evacuation predictions, the necessity for improved disaster preparedness is emphasized. Authorities are urged to mobilize resources to address potential disasters effectively, especially considering demographic challenges. The impending review of the Basic Plan for disaster mitigation reflects a commitment to enhancing Japan’s resilience against seismic events.
Original Source: japannews.yomiuri.co.jp
