Japan’s government warns that up to 298,000 people could die from a mega quake in the Nankai Trough. Although the estimated death toll has decreased since 2012, it remains well above the desired reduction goal. Evacuation projections have risen, prompting the need for improvements in strategies and infrastructure to ensure public safety.
A recent report by Japan’s earthquake task force indicates that up to 298,000 individuals could perish in a mega quake associated with the Nankai Trough. This estimate represents a decrease of approximately 10 percent from the previous prediction made in 2012, although it still falls short of the government’s ambitious goal of reducing fatalities by 80 percent, as outlined in the 2014 disaster prevention plan.
The report projects that emergency evacuations would escalate from 9.5 million to 12.3 million people, which amounts to roughly 10 percent of the nation’s population. Additionally, an estimated 764 municipalities across 31 of Japan’s 47 prefectures are anticipated to experience significant seismic shaking or tsunami waves exceeding three meters.
Economic losses from such an event could reach as high as 270 trillion yen (approximately S$2.43 trillion), an increase from the prior estimate of 214 trillion yen. While the maximum number of buildings expected to be entirely destroyed has been marginally reduced to 2.35 million due to improvements in residential seismic retrofitting, the potential public health crisis remains a pressing concern.
The task force estimates that 215,000 out of the projected death toll would result from tsunami impacts, assuming only 20 percent of individuals evacuate promptly. Increasing the evacuation rate to 70 percent could lower the tsunami-related deaths significantly to 94,000. Additionally, the area projected to face flooding of at least 30 centimeters has risen by 30 percent, attributed to advances in topographical data analysis.
The bleakest scenario anticipates a magnitude 9-class earthquake occurring during winter at night, with the most substantial fatalities expected in Shizuoka (101,000), followed by Miyazaki (33,000) and Mie (29,000). Aside from direct deaths, the government foresees between 26,000 and 52,000 further fatalities connected to deteriorating health conditions in evacuation centers.
A revision of the national disaster prevention plan will be initiated to establish additional priority areas to address the expanded flood risk. The government also intends to implement a new national resilience strategy for fiscal years 2026 to 2030, focusing on enhancing infrastructure development capabilities. Furthermore, a new dedicated agency for disaster prevention is set to be established in fiscal 2026.
This comprehensive assessment highlights the formidable risk posed by a potential mega quake along the Nankai Trough. The significant number of projected casualties and economic damages underscores an urgent need for revised evacuation strategies and infrastructure improvements. Plans to enhance public safety and preparedness will be critical in mitigating disaster impacts on Japanese society.
Original Source: www.straitstimes.com
