The IMD forecasts a hotter-than-usual summer for India from April to June 2025, with increased heatwave days in central and eastern regions. While the impact on the rabi harvest is minimal, late-sown wheat may face stress. The peak electricity demand is expected to rise as temperatures increase, influenced by climate change factors.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a hotter-than-usual summer from April to June 2025, with above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures anticipated across most of India. Specifically, there is an expected increase in heatwave days, particularly in central and eastern regions as well as the north-western plains.
While the impact on the ongoing rabi harvest is expected to be minimal due to most crops already being harvested, late-sown varieties of wheat in northern states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh may experience moisture stress if temperatures soar. Additionally, a rise in temperatures could potentially influence prices of perishable food items.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra indicated that average heatwave days are expected to increase this year, with a projection of 4 to 7 heatwave days, possibly extending to 10 days in eastern India. For April alone, heatwave days could climb from a typical 1-3 days to 3-6 this year.
States projected to experience above-normal heatwave conditions include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and northern Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The IMD’s assessment reveals no forecast for an El Niño occurrence in the upcoming months, with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation expected to remain neutral, alongside the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the monsoon. A forecast for the 2025 monsoon season is set to be released next month.
For April, the IMD predicts above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures, with normal to above-normal rainfall in specified areas, while below-normal rainfall is anticipated elsewhere. The long-period average for rainfall in April, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 39.2 millimeters.
In March of the previous year, the all-India maximum temperature ranked the 14th highest since 1901, with minimum temperatures at the 12th highest. As the summer approaches, experts suggest a peak electricity demand increase of 9 to 10 percent due to the anticipated higher number of heatwave days, following last year’s peak exceeding 250 gigawatts.
The IMD’s forecast indicates a notably hotter summer for India, with most regions experiencing higher temperatures and increased heatwave days. The impact on the rabi harvest is expected to be limited, although late-sown wheat may be affected. The prediction of neutral El Niño conditions alongside elevated electricity demand further emphasizes the potential challenges faced this summer.
Original Source: www.business-standard.com
