The U.S.-Ukraine ceasefire proposal may prompt Russia to demand sanction relief and troop withdrawals. Analysts forecast that Russia will likely make significant requests before accepting the ceasefire, including lifting punitive sanctions and securing military advantages for itself in strategically relevant territories over Ukraine.
On the recent ceasefire proposal between the United States and Ukraine, analysts anticipate that Russia may make demands including the lifting of sanctions and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region. This proposal emerged following discussions held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz communicated that he would be in talks with his Russian counterpart soon.
Currently, Russia has not responded to the 30-day ceasefire agreement reached by the United States and Ukraine after the discussions in Jeddah. Although President Vladimir Putin praised Russian military efforts during his visit to Kursk, specialists indicate that Russia’s acceptance of the proposal is contingent upon satisfying its demands.
The ceasefire proposal from the talks includes an immediate 30-day ceasefire, with humanitarian priorities such as the exchange of prisoners and the release of civilian detainees. However, the proposal notably lacks provisions pertaining to lifting sanctions on Russia or guarantees for Ukraine’s security. President Trump has previously indicated that any security guarantees should be primarily addressed by Ukraine’s European partners.
The Kremlin has stated it will assess the proposal before making any decisions, emphasizing caution. Reports indicate that discussions are ongoing, as Trump’s envoy plans to meet with Putin in the near future to facilitate negotiations on the ceasefire.
Experts predict that any acceptance of the ceasefire by Russia is unlikely without conditions. Analysts like Marina Miron of King’s College London underscore that presenting additional demands is likely necessary for the Kremlin, as they seek to further their strategic goals regarding Ukraine.
Potential demands from Russia may include lifting sanctions imposed by Western nations, which have totaled over 21,000 since the initiation of the conflict in 2022. Such actions would significantly allow Russia to recuperate and prepare for future military endeavors. Furthermore, the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Kursk is another critical objection, given recent military gains by Russian forces in the region.
According to Giles, historical trends suggest that U.S. backing may lean in favor of Russia’s demands. He argues that the dynamics of the situation reflect a power imbalance, where Ukraine is largely influenced by the U.S. rather than dictating the terms of the ceasefire proposition.
In summary, the ceasefire proposal crafted by the United States and Ukraine represents a potential step towards peace in the ongoing conflict. However, analysts predict that it is improbable for Russia to accept this offer without making considerable demands, including the lifting of sanctions and the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from strategically significant areas like Kursk. The ultimate outcome hinges on negotiations and the willingness of all parties to engage in constructive dialogue moving forward.
Original Source: www.aljazeera.com
